Apparently The Toronto Star Forgot About September 6, 1990

Because their editorial board has clearly lost their f*cking minds. Because if there is one thing Ontarians remember most when it comes to politics, it is the feeling they had on September 7, 1990. That, "holy shit! What have we done?!" feeling. The one they've never, ever, ever forgotten.

The Star? They've forgotten.

The Name Jack Layton's 100 Seat Contest

I've been on a couple talk shows lately asking where these prognosticators are predicting this Orange Surge to take place. Because, says I, you can't get there from here.

I still laugh my ass off when I hear the preposterous pundits telling people Jack Layton can win 100 or more seats. Let's start with the ridings he couldn't win if he was at 45% and work our way through this shall we.

I'll start the fun. My own riding. Burlington ON.

Team Jack garnered a whopping 6600 votes last election. Libs had 20,000 and the Cons had 28,000. So, no, the orange surge won't be "surging" here anytime soon.

See how easy this contest is?

I'll keep the fun going and then you can pitch in.

Jack will also not be winning Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Niagara West Glanbrook, Ancaster Dundas Flamborough Westdale, Oakville, Halton, Halton Hills, Missisauga Streetsville, Mississauga South, Brampton Springdale, Brampton West, Brampton Gore Malton, Mississauga Streetsville, Toronto Centre, St. Pauls, Willowdale, Eglington Lawrence, Simcoe Grey Bruce, Barrie, Newmarket Aurora, Ajax Pickering, Thornhill,Markham Oak Ridges,London North Centre, Guelph, Kitchener Centre, Brant, Haldimand Norfolk. That's 30

And that's just southern Ontario. See how easy this contest is? Feel free to continue the list. I'll add Papineau to start off the Jack-won't-win-this-one fun in Quebec and Wascana to start the Sask fun. That's 32. Continue on oh Saturday morning armchair experts.

The Morning Nanos

Nik on the Numbers

The national ballot remains relatively stable with a five point lead for the Conservatives over the NDP at this point in the campaign. NDP numbers continue to trend up in Ontario and also showed an increase in support in British Columbia.

Conservative support nationally stands at 36.4% followed by the NDP at 31.2%, the Liberals at 22.0%, the BQ at 5.7% and the Greens at 4.0%.

A review of the regional sub samples suggests that Atlantic Canada remains a statistical tie factoring the margin of error of the research.

Support for the New Democrats remains steady at 41.4% in Quebec with the BQ at 23.6%, the Liberals at 16.1%, the Conservatives at 15.8% and the Greens at 1.9%.

Conservative support is trending down in Ontario although still in the lead. In Ontario, the Tories are at 36.3%, followed by the Liberals at 29.8%, the NDP at 28.5% and the Green Party at 5.1%.

Tory support has increased in the Prairies to 60.0%, while the NDP are in second at 22.8%, the Liberals are at 13.3% and the Greens are at 3.9%.

Although the Tories maintain their support in British Columbia at 43.0%, the NDP registered a noticeable increase in support to 35.2%, followed by the Liberals at 18.2% and the Greens at 3.7%.

Party platform remains the top vote driver at 48.7%.

The Morning Nanos

Nik on the Numbers

Please note that this three day tracking report is based on polling completed on April 24, 26 and 27. No calling was conducted by Nanos on Easter Monday and this track includes one day of calling from the holiday weekend, plus calling on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Momentum in the federal election campaign continues to favour the NDP. Support for the Layton New Democrats continues to go up in Quebec and is now also on the increase in the province of Ontario. As a result, the Conservative advantage nationally has narrowed to six percentage points. Support for the New Democrats continues to move into uncharted territory.

Conservative support nationally stands at 36.6% followed by the NDP at 30.4%, the Liberals at 21.9%, the BQ at 6.0% and the Greens at 4.1%.

Atlantic Canada remains a statistical tie factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-samples.

NDP support in Quebec has hit 42.5% followed by the BQ at 25.1%, the Liberals at 15.0%, the Conservatives at 13.5% and the Greens at 2.4%.

West of the Ottawa River the Tories continue to enjoy an advantage over the opposition parties.

In Ontario, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals and New Democrats, but support for the Tories is trending down while the NDP is trending up. The Tories have 41.1% support, followed by the Liberals at 27.9%, the NDP at 26.1% and the Greens at 4.5%.

The Tories continue to lead in the Prairies at 53.8%, followed by the NDP at 26.0%, the Liberals at 14.6% and the Greens at 4.9%.

In British Columbia, the Tories are ahead with 45.3% support with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied (26.9% and 23.1% respectively).

One of two Canadians continues to identify party platform as their top vote driver at 49.0%, followed by party leader at 26.0% which is trending up.

Martha, Get the Life Rafts

Nik on the Numbers

Please note that this three day tracking report is based on polling completed on April 23, 24 and 26. No calling was conducted by Nanos on Easter Monday and this track includes two days of calling from the holiday weekend plus calling on Tuesday.

The Harper Conservatives maintain a 10 point lead but support for the NDP continues to trend up with the NDP in second, followed by the Liberals in third.

Nationally, the Tories have 37.8% support, followed by the NDP at 27.8%, the Grits at 22.9%, the BQ at 5.8% and the Greens at 4.7%.

Factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-samples, Atlantic Canada is a three-way tie.

The NDP have a clear advantage over the BQ in Quebec. NDP support in Quebec stands at 36.5%, followed by the BQ at 24.2%, the Liberals at 20.3%, the Conservatives at 13.6% and the Greens at 2.0%.

West of the Ottawa River the Tories continue to enjoy an advantage over the opposition parties.

In Ontario, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals and New Democrats (46.9%, 25.7% and 21.0% respectively) but Liberal support continues to trend down while NDP support moves up.

Although the Tories have a 20 point advantage in the Prairies, the New Democrats have surpassed the Liberals in popular support in that region (CP 49.6%, NDP 28.2%, LP 17.7%, GP 3.8%).

In British Columbia, the Tories are ahead with 40.9% support with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied (27.7% and 24.8% respectively).

One of two Canadians continues to identify party platform as their top vote driver 49.2%, followed by party leaders at 24.0%.

Today I Voted for Alyssa Brierley, Liberal, Burlington

And if you live in Burlington, you should too! She is the only one that can beat the Conservative incumbent Wallace.

Good Gawd Says Ekos New Poll

Liberal Senator Smith Gives Iggy the Kiss of Death

Next to Alf Apps, Senator Smith is the king of stupid things said on the campaign trail.

Senator Smith still likes to dream of believing he was the mastermind behind Chretien winning 96 out of 97 seats in Ontario back in 1993. He wasn't. But that's an argument for another day.

Last election Smith went on CTV with Craig Oliver the last weekend before the vote and Craig asked what Stephane Dion's chances were. Smith's answer? "When you wish upon a star". Today, when asked by Craig what Michael Ignatieff's chances are, Smith, in his infinite wisdom, chimed "Hope springs eternal". Wow. What a ringing endorsement for his hand chosen leader.

While I'm on a roll here - the new Liberal ad against the NDP sucks. And who decided to send MI to that hockey game in Mississauga? WTF! Talk about a party that looks like they're panicking. Get a grip people! Suck it up and stick to the original message.

A Conservative Super Majority...Congratulations Jack

Paul Martin was supposed to get a super majority back in 2004. He ended up with a minority. The press like people....the ones that used to almost act like journalists say its all over but the crying in election 2011. Maybe it is.

I, for one, am not of the same opionion as the used to be journalist types. Then again, what do I know?

An analysis of the results of the latest Ipsos Reid poll of national party standings suggests the Conservatives would win 201 seats — the largest majority in the House of Commons since Brian Mulroney's record 211 seats in 1984.


The Liberals would end up with 53 seats, the NDP with 48 and the Bloc Quebecois would sink to four, according to a seat calculator developed by Fair Vote Canada. The Green party would remain without a seat.


Findings of the poll, conducted this week for Postmedia News and Global TV, gave the Conservatives 43 per cent of decided support, compared to 24 per cent for the New Democrats and 21 for the Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois attracted six per cent support nationally and the Greens had four per cent.


To produce the seat projections, Fair Vote Canada — a group campaigning for voting-system reform — used a matrix that predicts how a party's supporters in a previous election will vote in the next election.


The method assumes a party polling above its previous popular vote will, on balance, keep all of its voters and capture some from other parties. Conversely, a party polling below last election's popular vote will be losing some of its voters to other parties.


Ottawa Citizen

Jason Kenney And Harper Outright Lying About Immigration

And getting away with it too....

It's worth reprinting from the The Star

Don’t vote Conservative, immigration lawyers warn newcomers
Published On Wed Apr 20

In an unusual move, a group of Canadian lawyers and legal academics are urging voters not to support the Conservative Party in the May 2 election.

“The Conservative Party has been telling visible minority immigrant communities, which it calls the ‘ethnic vote,’ that it is improving the immigration system,” said the group in a statement released Wednesday. “A review of their record shows the contrary.”

The group, made up of leading immigration lawyers and professor across Canada, said the Conservative Party has misled the public, especially immigrant voters, by making twisted statements about the state of Canada’s immigration and refugee system, in order to win newcomer votes.

Among the group‘s claims:

• The annual visa quotas for sponsored parents and grandparents are down — not up — by 44 per cent from 20,005 in 2005 to 11,200 in 2011. It now takes nine to 30 months longer to process these sponsorships, depending on the visa post.

• The backlog of skilled worker applicants waiting for a decision has gone up — not down — from 487,000 in 2005 to the current 508,000.

• Instead of getting tough on smugglers, new legislation introduced by the party target the victims of smuggling, the refugees, by mandatory detention, denying permanent residency and making it more difficult for refugees to reunite with their families.

• The party claims to be sympathetic to genuine refugees who do not flee their countries illegally, but just announced plans to cancel the only program allowing Canada to protect refugees applying from within their own country.

“It is one thing for the Conservatives to say we make our decisions, our policies and live with the consequences,” said lawyer Lorne Waldman, one of the group’s initiators. “Voters need to make informed choices based on facts and not be misled by misleading statements.”

The group also points to a $53 million cut in settlement services funding — $43 million from Ontario alone.

Despite claims by Conservatives that new laws will crack down on marriage fraud, the groups said it won’t stamp out bogus spousal sponsorships, but make reunification with mostly legitimate spouses more difficult. Worse, the conditional two-year permanent residency will trap spouses in abusive relationships, it added.

Forty-six lawyers and professors have endorsed the group’s claims so far, including lawyers Barbara Jackman in Toronto and Mitchell Goldberg in Montreal, law professors Donald Galloway of the University of Victoria, Queen’s University’s Sharryn Aiken and University of Ottawa’s Peter Showler, former chair of the Immigration and Refugee Board.

However, Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said he is proud of the Conservative government’s record on immigration and its effort in reaching the highest levels of immigration of any government in Canadian history.

“I know that defenders of the status quo, like many immigraiton lawyers, have been opposed to all of our efforts to improve Canada’s immigration and refugee system, like our balanced refugee reforms, and our efforts to cut the backlog in the skilled worker program,” Kenney said.

“The Harper Conservatives have had a more generous policy towards legal immigration than any government.”

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is renewing his push for a better immigration deal from Ottawa.

The province wants more say in which immigrants it takes in to help boost the Ontario economy and a freer hand to provide better services to new Canadians settling here, McGuinty said, following up on resolutions passed in the Legislature recently calling for a new deal.

With files from Rob Ferguson