Friday, April 22, 2011

A Conservative Super Majority...Congratulations Jack

Paul Martin was supposed to get a super majority back in 2004. He ended up with a minority. The press like people....the ones that used to almost act like journalists say its all over but the crying in election 2011. Maybe it is.

I, for one, am not of the same opionion as the used to be journalist types. Then again, what do I know?

An analysis of the results of the latest Ipsos Reid poll of national party standings suggests the Conservatives would win 201 seats — the largest majority in the House of Commons since Brian Mulroney's record 211 seats in 1984.

The Liberals would end up with 53 seats, the NDP with 48 and the Bloc Quebecois would sink to four, according to a seat calculator developed by Fair Vote Canada. The Green party would remain without a seat.

Findings of the poll, conducted this week for Postmedia News and Global TV, gave the Conservatives 43 per cent of decided support, compared to 24 per cent for the New Democrats and 21 for the Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois attracted six per cent support nationally and the Greens had four per cent.

To produce the seat projections, Fair Vote Canada — a group campaigning for voting-system reform — used a matrix that predicts how a party's supporters in a previous election will vote in the next election.

The method assumes a party polling above its previous popular vote will, on balance, keep all of its voters and capture some from other parties. Conversely, a party polling below last election's popular vote will be losing some of its voters to other parties.

Ottawa Citizen


rww said...

How dare they. How dare the NDP exist. How dare they try to win votes from all the other parties like any political party. How dare they challenge the Liberals right to be the natural governing party. How dare they.

James Curran said...

How dare they campaign against Conservatives....oh. That's right. They don't.

Robert McClelland said...

The press like people....the ones that used to almost act like journalists say its all over but the crying in election 2011.

Judging by this post and its incendiary title you think it's over too.

MERBOY said...

I am kind of disappointed with how the NDP has been campaining for this election... every opposition party if they voted to hold the government in contempt should have defeating Conservative candidates on the top of their priority list if they truly believe in the contempt charge.

b_nichol said...

I wouldn't get your knickers in a knot, James. Ipsos-Reid/Fair Vote Canada appears to be the outlier.

And besides that, maybe that whole Blue-door/Red-door shtick just isn't cutting it anymore.
Whinging about having lost the election at this stage is the one sure way to turn voters left: if can't keep up the fight, then accede now and turn your supporters loose.

James Curran said...

I'm pretty sure none of you read the post.

Derrida (sous rature) said...

1. A number of people have suggested that FV's might not be the most accurate and proper projection matrix out there. Too close to Call's is much better.

2. Is the point of your post that since Martin was supposed to get a super majority and ended up with a minority, that the same will happen to Harper?

3. About 2004, Paul Martin campaigned across the country begging NDP voters to support the Liberals. In the riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam in British Columbia he said, “If you are thinking of voting NDP, I ask you to think about the implications of your vote. In a race as close as this, you may well help Stephen Harper become prime minister.” In that race the Conservatives beat the NDP, who came in second place, by a very few votes, with the Liberals trailing at a distant third. If NDP voters had ignored Paul Martin's plea and voted NDP, an NDP candidate would have been elected.

4. So are you Canada loving Liberals ready to hand over your votes to help elect NDP candidates. The NDP clearly has the momentum and may be able to some seats threatened by Conservatives (e.g. in BC, in Quebec, in NB)? Or do Liberals just like to plug ABC when it waters down NDP support and helps elect more Liberals?

Rather than blaming the NDP you might want to go over to Kinsella's blog for a different take.

b_nichol said...

I read (and have now re-read) the post, and previously the CUSJC article; putting the hed in context with what you have written, adding a dash of competing theories of surging support, mushed together with a single seat projection, my question then is, what is your point if it's not to bash the NDP polling numbers?

Has something gone completely over my head? Perhaps you meant this as parody - something that hand-wringing Liberal bloggers and aupporters will be expected to say in the remaining days of the campaign. If so, in order for a parody to be effective, it has to exaggerate the storyline beyond belief, or leave little clues as to the veracity of the claims being made.

My take on your piece, and I would gladly accept clarification, was that it was the opening salvo in yet one more last-minute panic attempt to keep some soft votes in play.

Derrida (sous rature) said...

@b_nichol: I agree with you entirely.

BTW, according to Nanos, and virtually every other pundit, the NDP surge is bad news mostly for the BQ in Quebec and for the Conservatives' chance at majority. If the Liberals fall to third, they have themselves to thank.

Nanos Today:
At this particular level, it’s much more difficult for the Conservatives to form a majority government,” pollster Nik Nanos told The Globe Friday.

James Curran said...

Sure. Whatever. If you don't like the way I write, you don't't have to visit...or, you can always write your own "superb and perfect in every sense" blog.

Perhaps you can tell us where all these new and wonderfulf NDP seats will be coming from and what Liberal seats your think are lost because of an NDP surge. Maybe you can ask Warren.

Derrida (sous rature) said...

Jim, a little touchy there dude. If you didn't write provocative fear mongering posts linked to progressive bloggers, I wouldn't be coming here.

Then you claim no one read you correctly, so you were asked to clarify.

Where the extra NDP seats will come from? Quebec mostly and some scattered throughout the country (including my riding of Parkdale High Park -where Peggy Nash will be returned deservedly to Ottawa.

In BC I think the NDP could take a couple of CPC seats, given that Canada loving Liberals will be voting strategically in ridings where NDP candidates can beat Conservative hopefuls. Right Jim? You endorse strategic voting, don't you?

James Curran said...

I don't recall ever mentioning strategice voting on this blog. As in ever.

And, because Peggy Nash is the voice of the NDP, that doesn't mean she deserves to be in Ottawa. Will Gerard win? I don't know. Probably

Derrida (sous rature) said...

Ok then, what is your take on strategic voting?

James Curran said...

I don't have an opinion on it. I can tell you that you can strategic vote all you want in Alberta and it will have zero effect.

b_nichol said...

Again, James, chill.

No one here asked for "superb and perfect in every sense". You've put up a post, received criticism for its rather narcissistic tone, rejected our analysis by implying we didn't read the post, and still haven't clarified what you really mean while insisting that everyone's interpretation is wrong.

I would like to understand the point of the post. No hostile intent, just understanding. If you're just blowing off a little steam, fine. We figured as much from the start.

And ask Linda Duncan if she didn't benefit from a huge effort by Liberals in 2008 in strategic voting. (She represents an Alberta riding, remember?)

ck said...

Ipsos and Fair Vote aren't the only ones to call a Harper majority due to the NDP surge. I have yet to find a pollster or pundit who says this endangers Harper's quest for a majority, in fact.

I have seen nothing about this NDP surge in the polls translating into a significant increase in seats. In fact, it simply causes vote splitting that would favour the Harpercons in many ridings. I know this is the case for a few ridings in Quebec where the Bloc were leading and now the Harpercons are.

Jim is correct, since the debates, Layton has not been campaigning against Harper. In fact, every NDP ad I've seen on TV as of late are ones attacking Ignatieff, not Harper. That's the problem. I wish the opposition parties would stop attacking each other and attack the common enemy--Harper. Or perhaps Harper isn't necessarily Jack's enemy? The article below certainly questions this.

This is a pertinent read today.

So those who may be celebrating the potential demise of the Bloc Quebecois and/ or Liberals and Jack Layton as the official opposition, just remember that it comes with a very big price tag--a Harper majority and it won't matter who's in official opposition to that; they'll be nothing more than window dressing; figures who take up seats. Parliament and Gov't will be Harper's playground to do as he pleases.

Wayne Smith said...

You have been misinformed.

Fair Vote Canada has made no election predictions.


Our calculator is an educational tool intended to show how our voting system distorts the results of our elections.

It is a calculator, not a predictor.

You can put any numbers you want into the calculator. If the numbers are sufficiently stupid, it will generate stupid output.

Somebody else put questionable poll results into our calculator, and passed the results off as a prediction by Fair Vote Canada.

Fair Vote Canada has made no election predictions.


Wayne Smith
Executive Director
Fair Vote Canada