I, for one, am not of the same opionion as the used to be journalist types. Then again, what do I know?
An analysis of the results of the latest Ipsos Reid poll of national party standings suggests the Conservatives would win 201 seats — the largest majority in the House of Commons since Brian Mulroney's record 211 seats in 1984.
The Liberals would end up with 53 seats, the NDP with 48 and the Bloc Quebecois would sink to four, according to a seat calculator developed by Fair Vote Canada. The Green party would remain without a seat.
Findings of the poll, conducted this week for Postmedia News and Global TV, gave the Conservatives 43 per cent of decided support, compared to 24 per cent for the New Democrats and 21 for the Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois attracted six per cent support nationally and the Greens had four per cent.
To produce the seat projections, Fair Vote Canada — a group campaigning for voting-system reform — used a matrix that predicts how a party's supporters in a previous election will vote in the next election.
The method assumes a party polling above its previous popular vote will, on balance, keep all of its voters and capture some from other parties. Conversely, a party polling below last election's popular vote will be losing some of its voters to other parties.