Saturday, April 30, 2011

The Name Jack Layton's 100 Seat Contest

I've been on a couple talk shows lately asking where these prognosticators are predicting this Orange Surge to take place. Because, says I, you can't get there from here.

I still laugh my ass off when I hear the preposterous pundits telling people Jack Layton can win 100 or more seats. Let's start with the ridings he couldn't win if he was at 45% and work our way through this shall we.

I'll start the fun. My own riding. Burlington ON.

Team Jack garnered a whopping 6600 votes last election. Libs had 20,000 and the Cons had 28,000. So, no, the orange surge won't be "surging" here anytime soon.

See how easy this contest is?

I'll keep the fun going and then you can pitch in.

Jack will also not be winning Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Niagara West Glanbrook, Ancaster Dundas Flamborough Westdale, Oakville, Halton, Halton Hills, Missisauga Streetsville, Mississauga South, Brampton Springdale, Brampton West, Brampton Gore Malton, Mississauga Streetsville, Toronto Centre, St. Pauls, Willowdale, Eglington Lawrence, Simcoe Grey Bruce, Barrie, Newmarket Aurora, Ajax Pickering, Thornhill,Markham Oak Ridges,London North Centre, Guelph, Kitchener Centre, Brant, Haldimand Norfolk. That's 30

And that's just southern Ontario. See how easy this contest is? Feel free to continue the list. I'll add Papineau to start off the Jack-won't-win-this-one fun in Quebec and Wascana to start the Sask fun. That's 32. Continue on oh Saturday morning armchair experts.


gingercat said...

Missed Kitchener/Waterloo

James Curran said...

That's 33.

WILLY said...

Mississauga Erindale, alrthough Harper still can unfortunately

James Curran said...

That's 34! Go Omar God!

ck said...

Can I begin some Quebec fun here?

In Montreal: Lac-St-Louis, Mount-Royal, (might as well put every Anglo West Montreal riding here; they're pissed at Jack for wanting to reopen the constitution; all they'll do is split the vote for Cons to perhaps come up the middle) Hochelaga, Rosemont-La Petite Patrie (despite the NDP running as staunch a separatist as the Bloc's Bernard Bigras), Honore-Mercier, La Pointe de l'Isle, Cartierville-St-Laurent, Bourassa, Papineau (NDP may help Justin Trudeau here due to vote splitting with the Bloc), Laurier-Ste-Marie (Duceppe will still take his own riding).

Rest of Quebec? Anywhere in the NOrth, Around Quebec City perimeter (unless they promised them that arena), Lower-St-Lawrence (birth of the right winged ADQ), Monteregie

Sorry to burst the bubble for some NDP supporters, but I'm of the belief that the numbers have been inflated and the polling samples are only taken from places where NDP support is already concentrated.

The sites promoting strategic voting like Catch 22, Swing 33 and Project Democracy have been crunching the numbers and have been updating regularly--nothing indicating 'orange crush' across the board.

And that article from TStar about that so-called Tory 'source' saying majority out of reach, don't believe it for a minute; again Steve controlling the message and another tactic to keep voters at home on Monday.

Greg said...

Which would make you happier, to be right or wrong?

Anonymous said...

Shouldn't this contest work the other way? Because if you don't get to 208, does that mean the NDP can win 100?

I think the NDP could pick up as much as 40 seats in Quebec (at 40% in every single Quebec poll this week that is better than the BQ got in 2008 when they won 48 seats and BQ numbers are not much higher than the LPC scored in that election and the LPC only won 14 seats). I know there are regional factors at play but the 40% support number in Quebec has popped up so often I don't think it can be denied. Every projection model is showing them picking up at least 20 Quebec seats now.

Now, I DON'T think the NDP will make much growth elsewhere. Maybe pick up a couple seats in Ontario (Davenport, maybe another). I say that at most they get 2 additional seats in Saskatchewan, 1 more seat in Manitoba and 2 more in BC.

So I'd say their max on election night is 83.

But James you should remember 1990. How many ridings did the NDP win in that election with only 37% support in Ontario that NO ONE, I mean no one predicted they had any chance in, where they had zero ground game and where they had finished a distant 3rd previously?
So we shouldn't be so confident at what might happen.

Just trying to be fair here. If I had to predict I say the NDP gets 73 seats on election night. The Liberals I think will get 75-85. Which actually allows for a working majority between the two parties. But Harper would still likely continue to govern with those numbers because a coalition was ruled out and a minority government with only 85 seats wouldn't fly.

And I say Ignatieff will stay on as leader and lead the party in the next election after this one.

James Curran said...

They weren't a distant third in 1990. They were in fact the official opposition. And if you call having every single union on your side no ground game then you surely are mistaken.

Ignatieff will stay on until the next leadership but only because he is not pension eligible until 2012.

Far be it from me to shoot facts like that out though.

Anonymous said...

Fair points about 1990, I was young then so my memory is not as good, all I know is they went from 19 seats to 74 seats so I assumed that in some of those pick ups they were a distant 3rd place in 1987.

I still don't think it's far fetched for the NDP pick up 40 of the 75 Quebec seats when they are sitting at higher number in the polls than what netted the Bloc 48 seats in Quebec last election. Somewhere in the 20 seat range there may be more likely, but unless every single poll has been wrong in pegging NDP support in Quebec at 40% (no poll in the past week has pegged it lower than 35%) to get less than 20 seats picked up seems unlikely. Ground game or not, not everyone needs a call on election day or a ride to the polls to turn out and vote (and all parties traditionally give rides to the polls if asked even if not an id'd supporter).

I think you are wrong about Ignatieff's motivations for staying on though. I think he holds a genuine belief that he will win next time and that public will grow to like him over time. And he will pass a leadership review later this year with 70%+ support no matter how bad the Liberals do in this election I bet because none of the prospective leadership candidates feel ready to take a go at it so they will support him. Dion did not have that luxury that will be the key difference.

Pensions have nothing to do with who leads the party though. Paul Martin stayed on as MP after stepping down, Ignatieff could do the same if it was really just about pensions and he would receive one after the next election.

James Curran said...

Listen. You can't get there from here. It's simple math. The plurality in the ridings NDP finished 3rd in is beyond ridiculous. The Cons and Libs in Ontario and BC ain't rolling over for Jack. And in most of those ridings, the Dipper candidates are so weak they couldn't gain traction if they wanted to. Or you could send all the candididates to Vegas because they all have their priorities straight.

Secondly, If Iggy survives a review it'll be because nobody went to the convention. Paul Martin already had his six years in. Iggy doesn't.

And let me get this straight, we turfed Dion with 77 seats and 27% of the vote but we'll keep Iggy with less numbers in both areas if all this goes down as the pundits are claiming?

Anonymous said...

The NDP go like to point out

Look I don't think they'll make much of any hedway outside of Quebec, as I said MAX pickup of 8 seats across the entire country outside of Quebec. The Quebec effect is real. If we need another example, how many places did the ADQ go from 3rd to 1st in their breakthrough election? They went from 4 to 41 seats and that was in an election where another party beat them in the popular vote and hte other one was only 2% behind. The NDP are 10% ahead of the Bloc in Quebec in every poll and the LPC and CPC aren't cracking 20%.

Not saying the Quebec affect for the NDP will last any longer than it did for the ADQ (who got wiped out agian) but I do think it's real this election and should not be dismissed outright when it is showing up in every poll.

As for Ignatieff, the convention will be in Ottawa. Ignatieff will line up caucus and their staffers behind him and when a convention takes place in Ottawa I think that's all he will need. Dion didn't have that. It's not about what's fair, it's just reality. And a good chunk of the press are all saying this loss wasn't Ignatieff's fault and that he ran a good campaign and campaigned better than Dion (that may not be how you see things but it is what they are writing).

Even if the results are worse (and it's not clear they will be I still predict the Liberals will pickup some seats), he will have a lot going for him that Dion didn't.
In 2008 the media chorus immediately on election night was "Dion can't possibly stick around now" and no one in caucus stood up for him. You won't see the press calling for Iggy's removal and you will see caucus members defending him.

None of that is to say it was fair that Dion was booted so quickly, but neither the press, caucus, nor the wider membership (who still held hopes for their guy from 2006) wanted Dion to stay so that was that.

Anonymous said...

Sorry the first line should say "The NDP do like to point out that they finished 2nd in over 100 ridings in the last election." But they won't get close to 100 this time all the same.

Anonymous said...

Jim what are your thoughts on Calgary Grit's seat projections?

I'm genuinely curious. I don't believe they will pan out, but he claims he's got the best model out there. If you are going to comment though at least read his methodology first. Calgary Grit is obviously a Liberal, but willing to put that aside to try to make accurate predictions.

James Curran said...

Don't worry, Iggy won't be sticking around. And he's not as safe in caucus as he was in 08 when the Iggynation controlled every position in the party. But enough said, we have seats to win damn it.

As for Calgary's predictions? He's a pretty smart feller. I'm certain the scientific aspect of it all is pretty sane.

I can just observe what I'm seeing and hearing here where I am in all fairness. And the run down is pretty simple. Niagara Falls the NDP finishes third. St. Catharines the NDP will finish third. In Welland the NDP gets reelected. In Niagara West Glanbrook the NDP will finish third. In Hamilton East Stoney Creek the NDP will be re-elected. ON Hamilton Mountain it is too close to call Bountrianni putting up a large opposition and the strong Con Terry Anderson splitting NDP Lib votes. Charlton has won the sign war there though. In Hamilton Centre NDP get re-elected. In ADFW the dippers are sapping the only chance to beat the Cons in Lib Dave Braeden. In Burlington the NDP can't be found with a search warrant. What vote they do get will cost Lib Alyssa Brierley a good shot at knocking off Con Wallace. In Halton it's all Lisa "cancer is glamorous" Raitt vs. Lib Connie Laurin Brown. The NDP? nowhere. Same with Oakville. Max Kahn is poised to knock off that Con loser Terrence Young and the NDP are nowhere on the map.

And so goes the rest of ONtario. The Libs have a shot at beating quite a few Cons. Unfortunately that NDP surge in ridings that they aren't even close in may be the difference between Con Majority of minority. Guelph, Kitchner, London, Brampton, Mississauga, etc.

Anonymous said...

Durham. Don't forget Durham.

And I believe, despite the hype, they won't be taking Oshawa either.

Devin Johnston said...

So, how did that work out for you?

James Curran said...

Worked out pretty good. Every riding I listed as a non winner for the dippers are in fact ridings they didn't win. And, nobody could name the 100. I'd say that's a winner.

Unlike how Jack will be "winning" in opposition now that he has even less power than he did 4 weeks ago. He'll do what Harper says and damn well like it.

HCC said...

You may find Jack Layton's (NDP's) true political affiliations quite interesting - the SOCIALIST INTERNATIONAL (SI ) - from whom Jack takes orders (as opposed to from his electorate):

This is a REPORT of the SI on its SAO PAULO conference which discusses new global institutions of global governance, and new international architecture, the nation-state being no longer "important":

These are the Participants at the SAO PAULO conference, including Dawn Black for the NDP:

Layton's NDP and the SI are working on creating a world government. However, this is old news, the SI has been working on that since well before NDP became a member of the SI.

A couple of Permanent Links on JACK being front-page news at the SI web site after the May 2011 federal elections:




[3] "The Grasp of the Socialist International by William F. Jasper (New American 16 February 2010) -- "

That last article will explain to you precisely WHAT the Socialist International is, and where it comes from. Its roots are SOVIET, it's the continuation of the old Soviet Communist International, a plan for communist world government.

A lot of people voted for Jack because they know Stephen Harper is annexing Canada to the USA and Mexico. However, JACK is a friendly guest speaker at the Model Parliament for North America hosted by the North American Forum on Integration. He secretly promotes CONTINENTAL UNION, the annexation of Canada to the USA and Mexico, because it's needed to complete the world communist government made up of Marxist-model continental unions.

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