Nik on the Numbers
Please note that this three day tracking report is based on polling completed on April 23, 24 and 26. No calling was conducted by Nanos on Easter Monday and this track includes two days of calling from the holiday weekend plus calling on Tuesday.
The Harper Conservatives maintain a 10 point lead but support for the NDP continues to trend up with the NDP in second, followed by the Liberals in third.
Nationally, the Tories have 37.8% support, followed by the NDP at 27.8%, the Grits at 22.9%, the BQ at 5.8% and the Greens at 4.7%.
Factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-samples, Atlantic Canada is a three-way tie.
The NDP have a clear advantage over the BQ in Quebec. NDP support in Quebec stands at 36.5%, followed by the BQ at 24.2%, the Liberals at 20.3%, the Conservatives at 13.6% and the Greens at 2.0%.
West of the Ottawa River the Tories continue to enjoy an advantage over the opposition parties.
In Ontario, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals and New Democrats (46.9%, 25.7% and 21.0% respectively) but Liberal support continues to trend down while NDP support moves up.
Although the Tories have a 20 point advantage in the Prairies, the New Democrats have surpassed the Liberals in popular support in that region (CP 49.6%, NDP 28.2%, LP 17.7%, GP 3.8%).
In British Columbia, the Tories are ahead with 40.9% support with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied (27.7% and 24.8% respectively).
One of two Canadians continues to identify party platform as their top vote driver 49.2%, followed by party leaders at 24.0%.