Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Martha, Get the Life Rafts

Nik on the Numbers

Please note that this three day tracking report is based on polling completed on April 23, 24 and 26. No calling was conducted by Nanos on Easter Monday and this track includes two days of calling from the holiday weekend plus calling on Tuesday.

The Harper Conservatives maintain a 10 point lead but support for the NDP continues to trend up with the NDP in second, followed by the Liberals in third.

Nationally, the Tories have 37.8% support, followed by the NDP at 27.8%, the Grits at 22.9%, the BQ at 5.8% and the Greens at 4.7%.

Factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-samples, Atlantic Canada is a three-way tie.

The NDP have a clear advantage over the BQ in Quebec. NDP support in Quebec stands at 36.5%, followed by the BQ at 24.2%, the Liberals at 20.3%, the Conservatives at 13.6% and the Greens at 2.0%.

West of the Ottawa River the Tories continue to enjoy an advantage over the opposition parties.

In Ontario, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals and New Democrats (46.9%, 25.7% and 21.0% respectively) but Liberal support continues to trend down while NDP support moves up.

Although the Tories have a 20 point advantage in the Prairies, the New Democrats have surpassed the Liberals in popular support in that region (CP 49.6%, NDP 28.2%, LP 17.7%, GP 3.8%).

In British Columbia, the Tories are ahead with 40.9% support with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied (27.7% and 24.8% respectively).

One of two Canadians continues to identify party platform as their top vote driver 49.2%, followed by party leaders at 24.0%.


CK said...


37.8%--still very much within majority territory, especially given the high numbers in seat rich Ontario, where the NDP really isn't going up. Nik Nanos had said last Monday on the G&M Harper could well eke out a majority simply on the support from the west and ONtario.

No idea why those dippers are celebrating.

R. G. Harvie said...

The sadder comment is now we hear Liberals suggesting this outcome suggests a need for a merger with the NDP.

Why is our current culture to inclined to jump to the "easy quick decision"? The McDonald's "drive through" decision?

How 'bout this?

How 'bout next time the Liberals actually have a leadership vote?

How 'bout the Liberals lick their wounds (if trends continue) and consider whether the schizophrenic need to adopt NDP platforms wasn't necessarily a good idea.

Just an idea.. "Liberals: Responsibly in the Centre"?

Greg said...

Read the Duffy Flanagan exchange, or whatever they call it at the Globe. Duffy says that the data from the 26th show the NDP with 36 and the Conservatives at 35 and the Liberals at 17.5!