Nik on the Numbers
The national ballot remains relatively stable with a five point lead for the Conservatives over the NDP at this point in the campaign. NDP numbers continue to trend up in Ontario and also showed an increase in support in British Columbia.
Conservative support nationally stands at 36.4% followed by the NDP at 31.2%, the Liberals at 22.0%, the BQ at 5.7% and the Greens at 4.0%.
A review of the regional sub samples suggests that Atlantic Canada remains a statistical tie factoring the margin of error of the research.
Support for the New Democrats remains steady at 41.4% in Quebec with the BQ at 23.6%, the Liberals at 16.1%, the Conservatives at 15.8% and the Greens at 1.9%.
Conservative support is trending down in Ontario although still in the lead. In Ontario, the Tories are at 36.3%, followed by the Liberals at 29.8%, the NDP at 28.5% and the Green Party at 5.1%.
Tory support has increased in the Prairies to 60.0%, while the NDP are in second at 22.8%, the Liberals are at 13.3% and the Greens are at 3.9%.
Although the Tories maintain their support in British Columbia at 43.0%, the NDP registered a noticeable increase in support to 35.2%, followed by the Liberals at 18.2% and the Greens at 3.7%.
Party platform remains the top vote driver at 48.7%.