Thursday, April 28, 2011

The Morning Nanos

Nik on the Numbers

Please note that this three day tracking report is based on polling completed on April 24, 26 and 27. No calling was conducted by Nanos on Easter Monday and this track includes one day of calling from the holiday weekend, plus calling on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Momentum in the federal election campaign continues to favour the NDP. Support for the Layton New Democrats continues to go up in Quebec and is now also on the increase in the province of Ontario. As a result, the Conservative advantage nationally has narrowed to six percentage points. Support for the New Democrats continues to move into uncharted territory.

Conservative support nationally stands at 36.6% followed by the NDP at 30.4%, the Liberals at 21.9%, the BQ at 6.0% and the Greens at 4.1%.

Atlantic Canada remains a statistical tie factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-samples.

NDP support in Quebec has hit 42.5% followed by the BQ at 25.1%, the Liberals at 15.0%, the Conservatives at 13.5% and the Greens at 2.4%.

West of the Ottawa River the Tories continue to enjoy an advantage over the opposition parties.

In Ontario, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals and New Democrats, but support for the Tories is trending down while the NDP is trending up. The Tories have 41.1% support, followed by the Liberals at 27.9%, the NDP at 26.1% and the Greens at 4.5%.

The Tories continue to lead in the Prairies at 53.8%, followed by the NDP at 26.0%, the Liberals at 14.6% and the Greens at 4.9%.

In British Columbia, the Tories are ahead with 45.3% support with the NDP and Liberals statistically tied (26.9% and 23.1% respectively).

One of two Canadians continues to identify party platform as their top vote driver at 49.0%, followed by party leader at 26.0% which is trending up.

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