Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Why the Dippers and Wells Shouldn't be Laughing at Quebec Liberals

This morning's post about the Dippers still being in fourth in Quebec seems to have signalled a victory for the NDP - at least according to their major blogger Robert McClelland. Hell I even made the New Democrats aggregator.

Here's a spin that Wells didn't talk about in his little blog story. One that brings the NDP's rejoicement over Liberals - who are apparently their real enemy, not Stephen Harper - to an abrupt holding pattern.

The Liberals have been hovering around 18 - 24 percent in Quebec for most of 2007 and 2008. Nothing's really changed in that regard. The Bloc was at 36% in the last poll out. According to this little CROP poll (try to find their website. Good luck) the Bloc is at 29%. A nice drop. So who got their support? The Conservatives and the Dippers. It's not the Liberals leaking support. It's the Bloc.

It would appear that Harper's immigration strategy is paying off large for him in the areas outside of the island of Montreal. Now we know why he has that ridiculous bill in the budget. It's clear that, once again, Harper has learned to pander to popular - and not always correct - opinion in Quebecoisville off the island. Remember the uproar recently over immigrants?

So, in the end, after the next election, the story will be the same. The Dippers will have one or less seats in the province of Quebec and 10 less seats in the House of Commons. That's my opinion. Afterall, how many seats have the NDP won in Quebec lifetime? Somebody refresh my memory.

So, for Quebec Liberals, repeat after me. The sky is not falling. The sky is not falling. The sky is not falling.


Robert McClelland said...

Only retards make this big of a deal out of polls.

wilson said...

'' It's clear that, once again, Harper has learned to pander to popular - and not always correct''

The 'people' are always right James.

Perhaps Libs need to stop pandering to the Dipper voters, and take a good look at what the majority of Canadians want.
It won't be a carbon tax,
it won't be raising the GST to pay for a new social program.

Ted said...

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th across the province who cares? We don't have a US electoral college system here.

Canadian elections are pretty simple: Win the most votes in one riding and you get the seat.

So when the polls show the NDP and the Conservatives chipping away at the Bloc support... where Liberals have no chance of winning... who gives a crap.

This poll shows the Liberals not losing a single seat in the next election and maybe gaining, and it shows the NDP not gaining a single seat.

If that is heaven for the NDP, then congratulations. You are almost relevant.

James Curran said...

Yes Robert We know:

Wilson, I'm convinced you are really Pierre Poilievre.

Teddy, well said.

Robert McClelland said...

There's a big difference between reporting a poll and writing a 600 word polemic trying to divine what it means. Only a right whinger wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

James Curran said...

Really? You should read some of your stuff. Quite lengthy. Makes for good bathroom material.

Alan said...

That is encouraging, considering all this time over numbers in Quebec have stayed the same since the last election. Never thought of it like that, thanks James for clearing the air. Guess the media was looking for a raise so they made up some crazy stories these past few weeks.

My own opinion is that we may take some seats back, though they may be restricted to Montreal island. I'm talking about Ahuntsic, and Papineau (where Justin Trudeau is running)

James Curran said...

Wells mentions Ahuntsic in his updated piece. Is Eleni running there again?

Alan said...

Yes, Eleni is running again that's what I heard. She recently left her post at the OLO in Ottawa.

I think Paddy Torsney's running again too.