Friday, September 14, 2007

La Presse Poll Reported Incorrectly...or, Spin it to suit yourself Chantal

So I downloaded the Unimarketing/La Presse poll that's run rampant all over the MSM today. Of course it's all being spun as the dismantling of Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party in Quebec.

But, let's have a look at the REAL story behind the numbers shall we. Then you can tell me who the REAL losers are in this by-election

ROBERVAL-LAC-STE.-JEAN

2006 Results

BQ 17,586/ 45.21%
Conswervatives 14,463/ 37.18%
Liberal 3,014/ 7.75%
Dips 2,151/ 5.53%
Green Wave 1,689/ 4.34%

La Presse Poll 2007

BQ 37%
Conswervatives 43%
Liberal 12%
Dips 4%
Green Wave 4%

So, you see, it would appear in this riding the big losers are the Bloc and the NDP. Both the Liberals and CONS are up in support in this riding. Take that Chantal!! Why aren't you telling us Duceppe is finished for good?

SAINT-HYACINTHE-BAGOT

2006 RESULTS

BQ 27,838/ 56.0%
Conswervatives 12,323/ 24.8%
Liberal 4,884/ 9.8%
Dips 2,723/ 5.5%
Green Wave 1,925/ 3.9%


La Presse Poll 2007

BQ 49%
Conswervatives 32%
Liberal 5%
NDP 7%
Green Wave 6%

So why isn't Chantal putting the death nail in the coffin of the BQ leader Gilles Duceppe? Duceppe gives up 7% in this riding. Liberals never ever had a sniff of hope here in elections past.


Now for the big one.

OUTREMONT

2006 RESULTS

Liberal 14,281 35.13%
BQ 11,714 28.81%
Dips 6,965 17.13%
Conswervatives 5,248 12.84%
Green Wave 1,948 4.79%

La Presse Poll 2007

Liberal 32%
BQ 14%
Dips 38%
Green Wave 8%
Conswervatives 7%


Again, who's the big loser. Duceppe of course. 14% loss from the last election. Not to mention the Conswervatives trailing the Green Party. But somehow Chantal Hebert and others have decided Stephane Dion and the Liberals are dead in the water if we lose Outremont. Read 'em weep everyone. The Liberal Party is alive and well in Quebec. Gotta be distressing for the Bloc though.

17 comments:

CuriosityCat said...

Strikes me that the Liberals should be increasing voting shares, not losing; the Tories are doing very well.

So where is the good news for the LPC??

James Curran said...

We're not losing. We're within the margin of error. And, contrary to what Chantal would have us believe, the Liberal Party is not bleeding like a stuck pig...the Bloc is. Our support is what it was in Jan. '06.

Sinestra said...

Good post, JC. See you Sunday!

Woman at Mile 0 said...

You're right. I think many people have speculated on her apparent dislike of Dion but this article pretty much nails her to it. She should come right out and state her bias because it's really hanging out there for everyone to see now. It's more honest.

Mushroom said...

Are the Bloc voters coming to us?

Steve V said...

Admitting you have a problem...

James Curran said...

I have a problem? No my friend, those who fail to remember leadership is over and they should get over themselves should admit they have a problem. People calling for leadership reviews have a problem. Iggy organizers in Quebec may have a problem.Marc Lavigne may have a problem. But not this guy.

I can read the numbers. We are basically even with 2006, which means Mr. Mulcair has to come up with 7200 more NDP votes to beat the Liberals. 20% swing.

Just for the hell of it though, I'm going to Montreal to help my party...regardless of who the leader is, who the candidate is, who's sitting on their ass, who the riding president is and what the bullshit UniMarketing Poll says.

How many times have you heard of UniMarketing anyway? I'm sure they're right up there with Ecos, Pollara, Ipsos.

And, our position in the other two ridings are EXACTLY within the margin of error as the previous election. And that's with a guy who has only been a leader for 9 months.

Don't worry about Dion and his committment to winning this riding. We will win Outremont.

Blaming the other two ridings on poor organization or lack of concern is assinine. WE haven't been close in those ridings since the formation of the Bloc.

So, instead of blaming everyone, I'm on board to get off my ass, go knock on some doors, drop off some lit, drive some people around, call some people, scrutineer, blog partisan stuff or whatever the hell else it takes to "do my part".

BTW flights are only $173 return taxes is on Air Canada from Toronto ;-)

Steve V said...

James, you seem content to think all is well, when it clearly isn't. I don't care about leadership agendas, but the simple fact is no matter what, this night is a bad night for the Liberals, it just is, and you desperate flight to pitch in SAYS IT ALL. No one is calling for Dion's head, but I hardly think praise and kumbaya is in order either. Objectively disappointing, no matter the bad spin.

Good luck, hope you make a difference.

James Curran said...

It's called GOTV. Get out the vote. We have the votes there. We have to do the job at hand and get them out.

It's a bad night because the Quebec media is still all over Dion form a hundred years ago. The fact is Lapierre did not cakewalk this riding. He only one in the final polling station counts. In fact, CBC pronounced him as having lost the riding. So, no Steve, nothing has changed since 2006. But, we haven't lost mass support like the Bloc.

Woman at Mile 0 said...

Good luck curran. It sounds exciting no matter how it winds up and I wish you luck. I would be there if I could. I hope you will post on your experiences.

Red Tory said...

Curiosity Cat — ...the Tories are doing very well.

7%... Good luck with that!

CuriosityCat said...

Red Tory, most voters in Quebec are francophones. The Liberal Party has been reduced to a small rump of mostly anglophone voters, huddled in befuddled besiegement in certain suburbs.

What the LPC needs is the degree of support the Tories have in the other two ridings - one in three voters, compared to the abysmal one in 20 or so for the LPC.

It would be better for the Liberals to break out of Outremont and win support in the rest of the province ....

Mushroom said...

Red,

Ever heard of tactical voting? That the CPC is doing worse than the Greens would be notable if it is running fourth in the other francophone ridings. It is not.

The vote Mulcair to punish Dion factor is present. The last minute blitz is brought forth to target this.

Stephen said...

This is very weak analysis.

The La Presse poll registers a drop of about 1.5% in NDP support in Roberval--well within the poll's margin of error--and this makes them 'big losers,' according to you.

Meanwhile, the same poll registers a drop more than three times larger, 4.8%, in Liberal support in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, but this plunge--outside the poll's margin of error--means nothing because the Liberals "never ever had a sniff of hope here in elections past."

How can a barely measurable drop in NDP support in Roberval make them 'big losers' while a much larger drop in Liberal support in St-Hyacinthe mean nothing about the fortunes of the Liberal party in Quebec?

It seems your irrational anger at Chantal Hebert has led you into incoherence.

James Curran said...

Yes, I'm certain the NDP will feel much better. Irrational anger? You missed the argument Stevie. Duceppe is done. Not the Liberals. Can't lose something you never had. Can't say that for the Bloc.

Your analysis of the numbers is staggering. Great call.

You're splitting of the hair is faaaaaarrrrrr past its due date. Good analysis of the numbers though. At least you were paying attention.

Stephen said...

Can't lose something you never had.

What does this mean? You write as though the Liberals haven't held St-Hyacinthe-Bagot in living memory.

James Curran said...

1980 was the last time we won. Haven't been close since the formation of the bloc. Or don't the numbers say all that.

Doom and gloom for Dion when the Liberals are at virtually the exact same numbers as the 2006 election? The Bloc getting blown away in Outremont doesn't raise any alarms for them? After losing by only 2400 or so votes? Fact is Mulcair is a popular guy, but the untrained eye of the voter still think he's a Liberal.

Rude awakeing for the NDP on Monday.