Sunday, February 24, 2008

Nanos Poll Says we're Even Steven

Today Nik Nanos released his latest poll. Here it is:

Federal Deadlock Continues / Key Ballot Drivers

Our latest tracking shows the Conservatives and the Liberals continue to be gripped in a deadlock. Support for the NDP has dropped 5 points nationally in the past 16 days while the Conservatives are up 3 points (within the Margin of Accuracy).

In order to understand what was driving the vote every committed voter was asked why they had a particular vote preference.

Conservatives were more likely to be driven by policies and job performance, the Liberals by a belief they were the best option and party policies/platform and the NDP by policies/platform and a belief they care for the average/working person.

Support for the Bloc was based on their standing up for Quebec/French and the belief they are the best choice. Green Party support was driven by their environmental credentials and policies/platform.

Polling between February 16th and February 20th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,001 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The Nanos Research Survey of 1,001 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The subset of committed voters is accurate to within 3.3 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)

The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed on February 4th, 2008.

Canada (N=878, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 34% (+1)
Conservative Party 34% (+3)
NDP 14% (-5)
BQ 10% (NC)
Green Party 8% (NC)

Question: Why is ______ your first choice?
Liberal supporters:
1. The best choice (20.8%)
2. Good policies/Platform (19.4%)
3. Tradition/Always voted for them (19.0%)

Conservative supporters:
1. Good policies/Platform (27.0%)
2. Doing a good job (18.8%)
3. The best choice (13.1%)

NDP supporters:
1. Good policies/Platform (26.7%)
2. Care about the average/working person (20.0%)
3. The best choice (18.3%)

Bloc supporters:
1. Stand up for Quebec/French (37.6%)
2. The best choice (18.8%)
3. Am a separatist (15.3%)

Green supporters:
1. Best for the environment (52.9%)
2. Good policies/Platform (20.0%)
3. Deserve a chance (11.4%)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at:

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "Nanos Poll."


MississaugaJoan said...


Liberal feel-good poll aside, how is the canvassing going? What are the odds of you bringing back the riding?

On the canvass, I have heard a few too many complaints, by past Liberal voters, about our leadership. Bringing up... When Canadians get to know him better... He has integrity... etc., appears to be wasted on already decided views.

James Curran said...

All I know is that Martha and Bob are getting good response at the doors for by-election canvassing. That's good enough for me.

MississaugaJoan said...

Nice redirect James,

I am sure that Martha and Bob are getting a good response.

My question was: "how is the canvassing going?" That's a direct question for you. I would like to hear what kind of response you, in a Conservative riding, are getting at the door.