Monday, May 2, 2011

The WDIKG Seat Predictions

Fine. I'll bite. Here they are.

Conservatives 152 (You're lucky to get that Stevie)

Liberals 66 (You deserved better Michael)

NDP 62 (sorry Jack, better luck next time)

Bloc 26 (I always though you'd be a great Liberal Gilles)

Independent 2 (If Briony Penn almost knocked of Lunn, May will 4 sure)


Anonymous said...

Can we get a regional breakdown on those predictions please?

Just curious where you think the wins and losses will take place. Thanks.

Your predictions are actually not that far off from the electionprediction project so you may be right.

By the way with these numbers, Ignatieff will be treated like Paul Martin was in 2004, seen as staving off disaster (I remember the pundits saying Harper was likely to win that election and seeing the relif on Paul's face). Ignatieff would then get to stay as long as he wanted. Certainly the pundits and other seat projection models are predicting worse for the Liberals than you are so if he "beats expectations" that will certainly work in his favour.

I know you have different opinions on that matter, just saying mine.

R. G. Harvie said...

Deserved or not, Ignatieff is done. And I suspect Harper will not lead into another election either.

James Curran said...

For the Libs, I see the potential loss of 3 in the GTA. 4 losses in NFLD. 2 in Vancouver. 1 PEI. 1 Manitoba.

I'm not even sure why I believe the Jack attack in Qc. The people on the ground tell me it's real. If it isn't Jack's numbers get smaller and Gilles get bigger. I also have Jack winning 2 seats in the east, 2 in Ontario, 1 in Manitoba, 1 in Sask and 3 in BC over what he has now.

The Con #s are staggering. They can also win up to 190 seats if the NDP fold like a cheap suit and middle ridings in BC, ON and QC. They also pick up 4 in NFLD.

Alison said...

I think it would be a huge mistake for the Liberals to ditch Ignatieff. No matter who was picked the Cons would launch a vicious smear campaign against them to poison Canadians opinion. They have already thrown their worst against Michael. As well, he has actually run a good campaign, but events have conspired against him. The NDP surge which was fed by the media and rather bizarre polls rather than any close reading of NDP policies or scrutiny of their leader.

I usually think people who are conspiracy theorists are nuts, but here's a thought that has been running through my head. The NDP came to an agreement with the Cons about not releasing the G8 report, and, in return, the Cons got their shills in the media to start planting the NDP surge misinformation. All the talk of the surge started before there was any clear indication in the polls.

James Curran said...

I know for a fact Conservatives have been sending voter ID to NDP candidates. They did in the last 2 elections as well.

hugger said...

I agree with Alison in that the Liberals need to pick a hill.

Maybe Ignatieff should go through a Leadership review and possibly an el cheapo Convention if necessary in order to set aside the ongoing criticism of not having been selected by the grass roots. It is a fair criticism.

That said, I question why you posted Conservative TV's Nano's polls daily on your site James?

I also question why your good friend, the Dark Prince wasn't better able to mask his self serving agenda?

I was not a fan of Ignatieff's from the time of the takeover, but I do acknowledge that he was one of two Party leaders who did their best to be honest in this campaign. Liz May being the other.

That in itself, plus he pushed the ethics button was enough to gain a considerable amount of respect from me.

Regardless of ambitions, those who are seen to be ambitious, will not garner favor with those who are not selfish pricks.

Nadine Lumley said...

Poll Data Unreliable

With seemingly perpetual minority governments and federal elections every few years, you’d think business would be booming for Canada’s polling companies. But a leading researcher says disappearing home phones and the rise of online polling are making things harder for the established players, and making their data less reliable.

In the 1970s and 80s, polling companies would get response rates as high as 80 per cent. Today, the figure has plunged to somewhere between 10 and 15 per cent, estimates Queen’s University political studies professor Scott Matthews.

Nadine Lumley said...

eJackuLayton… was in Kingston last Friday campaigning for the Conservative candidate.

He gave us Stephen Harper on a silver platter in 2006 and 2008, now he's had it gold plated. Thank you very much Jack. And what is Stephen Harper going to give you in return?

A key to the Conservative bathroom? Make sure you clean it Layton, before you leave.

Craig Chamberlain said...

I was going to predict 151 for CPC but then decided perhaps, just maybe, Canadians are tired of Mr. Harper's divisiveness and were ready to do something about it -- so I predicted 139.

R. G. Harvie said...

If results are a Conservative minority, or *gasp* NDP gov't, I can say that I will not blame attack ads, or conspirators.. It will be because they didn't deliver what the electorate demanded. I would suggest the LibeRal party might do the same.. Ie) look inward.

P.S. I voted NDP. I kid you not.