A review of the three day election tracking by Nanos for CTV News and The Globe and Mail suggests that one possible new scenario is that the Ottawa River could emerge as the new political dividing line in Canada. The Conservatives as of Tuesday night were leading, outside of the margin of error, for the regional sub samples in Ontario, the Prairies and now in British Columbia while they lag in Quebec and are statistically tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.
Nationally, Conservative support remains at 39.1%, about 11 points ahead of the Liberals who have 28.4%, followed by the New Democrats at 19.8%, the BQ at 7.7% and the Green Party at 3.9%.
The Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario (44.9% to 36.9%), in the Prairies (55.3% to 24.0%) and as of last night in British Columbia (41.8%). In BC, support for the Liberals stands at 25.9%, while the NDP are at 24.7% and Green Party at 6.8%. BQ support in Quebec stands at 32.5% with the NDP at 25.4%, the Liberals at 20.9% and the Conservatives at 16.6%. Gains for the NDP in Quebec over the past few nights of tracking have largely been realized at the expense of the BQ and the Conservatives.
One in two Canadians identified party policy as their top vote driver at 52.2% while party leader registered at the top driver among 21.7% of Canadians.