Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Dion Liberals Could Win - New Poll

Nik has the numbers. He's probably right too. I still love my leader.

20 comments:

MilitantLiberal said...

Woo-hoo lets vote down the thrown speech and have an election. I love it. Dion for Prime Minister

liberazzi said...

C'est la vie...

Reid said...

You're living in Liberal fantasy land. If you look at the polling numbers the entire time from when Dion was selected as leader to when the election was called, the Liberals and Conservatives polled close together. However, if you look at what happened once the election was called, Dion led Liberals sank like a stone. In a non-writ period people complacent and not paying as close attention. As soon as the writ is dropped people start to pay closer attention. When people pay close attention to Dion they don't like what they see.

Expect a repeat if you ran another election with Dion at the helm.

ottlib said...

I cannot shake this feeling that in about 18-24 months Liberals will look back at Mr. Dion's departure and they will exclaim "d'oh!!"

ottlib said...

reid:

Generally speaking when a government wins an election they enjoy a honeymoon. Their numbers go up not down. This is even true for old governments that are re-elected.

If for no other reason than poll respondents do not want to admit they voted for the losers.

I would have expected the Conservative numbers to be nudging 40% or higher just 6 weeks after the election as opposed to nudging 30%.

As well, I would point out that they said the same thing about Mr. McGuinty in Ontario and he wound up wiping the floor with Mr. Eves. And that was when the economy was booming.

The Right is Where it's At said...

Common Mr.Curran you're more intelligent than this. Why would anyone look at polls when there is no election on the horizon.The liberals have been stuck around the same 30% mark for about 2 years now. Just look at what has happened during the election when people were paying attention.Polls when there is no election going on is just as interesting has watching paint dry. But I digress.

James Curran said...

Go ask Nanos. What are you asking me for.

Ti-Guy said...

I'll repeat this until I'm blue in the face. We need Liberal blogs that are free from Conservative trolls. People like Reid and TRIWIA who spend all day checking Liblogs to find out where to troll.

They are arguing in bad faith and wasting our time.

James Curran said...

Amen ti.

Constant Vigilance said...

He is still leader till May and this is a minority government with a Prime Minster people are tired of.

They can't frame Dion anymore than they already have. If the government were to fall and they opposition isn't asked to present an alternative I expect that the Liberals would win with Dion. 1980 all over again.

Robin Goodfellow said...

I'm not sure if this shows anything substantive, but it may indicate how a well run campaign can boost you and how a shoddy campaign can sink you.

sharonapple88 said...

I cannot shake this feeling that in about 18-24 months Liberals will look back at Mr. Dion's departure and they will exclaim "d'oh!!"

It all happened too quickly.

Möbius said...

As well, I would point out that they said the same thing about Mr. McGuinty in Ontario and he wound up wiping the floor with Mr. Eves.

I'm not sure who "they" were, but Eves was immensely dis-liked by conservatives, because he became a shadow Liberal. McG originally lost against Harris, but Eves decided to become the anti-Harris, and lost his core vote.

Ti-Guy said...

but Eves was immensely dis-liked by conservatives, because he became a shadow Liberal.

Really? Gosh, the Harrisites were going through a lot more family dysfunction than we ever thought. The rest of us just thought he was as grease-ball with post-nasal drip.

...and a deficit-hiding liar.

Reid said...

ottlib:

There was no bump for the Conservatives after '06. If you look at the polling results from election '06 to post '08, with the exception of the election, both parties were relatively constant. The Conservative strength is in the campaigning.

tiguy:

There's nothing trolly about me. I posted an honest comment, using my real identity. What you really seem to want is NO opposing viewpoints. Why are you afraid of debate?

James: You seem to agree with tiguy. You could always filter comments on your blog to create a Liberal only place. You said you agree with ti, but yet you don't filter your comments. Are you a hypocrite or a liar?

Lizt. said...

I have much respect for Dion ,but Harper would ger a majority this time.

Ti-Guy said...

There's nothing trolly about me. I posted an honest comment, using my real identity. What you really seem to want is NO opposing viewpoints. Why are you afraid of debate?

What kind of debate starts with an accusation that one's challengers are detached from reality?

Quote: "You're living in Liberal fantasy land."

That isn't debate and you know it. It's just aggressive taunting from poorly-socialised Conservatives with no impulse control. I see no reason for Liberals to waste any more time or intellectual energy on this.

Ti-Guy said...

Are you a hypocrite or a liar?

I'm going over to troll...er, debate...with Reid and find out what what he means by this.

roblaw said...

It's unfortunate that people tend not to disagree in a way that shows respect for the process.. and I've been guilty myself on occasion.

Consider this, from any side of the political spectrum.. everyone who posts at least cares enough to think about what's happening in our country, and to take the time to express their thougths.. half our population doesn't even vote.

I appreciate that James tends to let opposing views air their thoughts.."trolls".. compared to W.K. who, for a time, shut his comments down, but, I agree that to the extent that we want to air our views on a Liberal blog (I'm a conservative) it is quite counter-productive to insult the 90% of the people reading the blog as you enter the debate..

Oh.. btw.. I've officially endorsed Michael Ignatieff in my blog as leader of the Liberal party.. hopefully not the kiss of death for him.

The Invisible Hand said...

They are arguing in bad faith and wasting our time.

Because posting on blog comment sections is otherwise such a productive use of time. ;)

BTW, I seem to recall that the first poll after the 2006 election had the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives.