Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Majority My A$$

I'm going to start posting about ridings the Liberals will be picking up on October 14th.

I'll drop a preview for you right now: David Orchard will defeat Rob Clarke in DMCR in Northern Saskatchewan. Take that one to the bank. Liberals +1 seat, Conservatives -1 seat. Net Swing, 2.

And so it goes. More to come soon.


WesternGrit said...

Good One James. You can add Fleetwood Port Kells in Surrey, BC. (my riding). Nina Grewal was elected by a very small margin. She got Reform vote, and benefited from her name bringing South Asian support. After Harper's false "apology" on the Komagata Maru issue, then being jeered off the stage - along with Grewal - at the Baba Mela (huge fair) in Surrey's Bear Creek Park, Nina's fortunes are pretty slim. The Liberals have Brenda Locke - a former provincial cabinet minister running against her, and she should be able to form a big enough coalition to knock Nina off.

I'll be working on the Locke campaign, and looking forward to victory day on October 14th!

James Curran said...

Congratulations on the future victory WG! Thanks for popping in.

See how easy this is folks.

Gayle said...

Edmonton Strathcona - will not go liberal but may go NDP. Linda Duncan nearly stole it from Jaffer last time around and she has already been mentioned twice, in two days, in the Journal as the candidate likely to unseat a conservative.

It will take some strategic voting from the liberal supporters though...

Goldenhawk said...

To add to the list, how about the ridings of Comuzzi, Emerson and Khan, the first two aren't even sticking around to face the music on their flipping? Vancouver Kingsway should be back in the Liberal column, the Thunder Bay riding might go either Liberal or NDP, and I would hope Mississauga (Streetsville?) will remain Liberal.

Also, the St. John's area ridings in Newfoundland are vulnerable now that Danny Williams has declared war on Stephen Harper. I don't know if all of them will flip, but it certainly improves the odds on picking off at least one of them.

liberazzi said...

I believe Tyler Banham has a good shot at reclaiming Hamilton Mountain and their is another one in Hamilton, which escapes me at the moment. Also, dont forget about Gerard Kennedy.

On a side note, the media in this country really quite disgust me.

Canajun said...

I think strategic voting is absolutely the order of the day if we are to minimize the number of Conservative seats. IMO, in every riding where the Cons are vulnerable, all party supporters should get behind the candidate most likely to bump him/her off.


Goldenhawk said...

To poke another hole in the majority theory, everyone says the Conservatives are going to piggyback off the ADQ in Quebec to win more seats. Has anyone seen the polls out of Quebec lately? According to CROP in June, they are polling around 17%, and they lost massive amounts of votes in the last round of by-elections, finishing 3rd, 4th and 5th. Not exactly a force to be reckoned with.

liberazzi said...

Okay, worst case scenario:

Conservative Party 148
Liberal Party 90
Bloc Québécois 40
New Democratic Party 27
Green Party 0
Independent 3
Total 308

I believe the seats the Libs have now, they will mostly keep with a few pick-ups and a few loses. The Cons will snatch a few BQ seats, but the Bloc will keep a majority of what they have now. The Dips will lose a few, but probably not gain. The Greens will come close in a couple of ridings, but no cigar. The independents like Bill Casey will hold.

The Cons will get their majority by stealing Bloc votes, but that seems unlikely. The Cons most likely will hold in Quebec City and maybe snatch a few more rural Quebec seats, but not enough overall.

The Libs look to hold most of their seats, but I am hard pressed to see where they can make a move. They might gain a few seats in the Maritimes, but they might lose a few seats in Ontario. They do not have a good enough ground game in Quebec to gains any there. Maybe a few lower mainland seats and maybe a couple of surprises to bring them to around 100.

Best cast scenario at this point:

Conservative Party 133
Liberal Party 100
Bloc Québécois 45
New Democratic Party 27
Green Party 0
Independent 3
Total 308

The Libs live to fight another day and keep Harper in check, but might have to hold their nose on a few votes again. Then really focus on reclaiming Quebec, perhaps with Trudeau leading the ground game there. Also, work on BC, where they can pick up some seats on the island and a few more on the lower mainland. Perhaps someone in the meantime can start leading a unite the left charge, since vote spliting might keep Harper in power for awhile. It might become an inevitability. How long can the Dips stand by, while the Cons are allowed to rip this country apart? Oh well, that is my rough estimate at this point. I really do not see voters discovering any magic with Harper ala Mulroney or Cretien or Trudeau. He just is too polarizing a figure to generate that type of following.

Perhaps, with a few more follies from the Cons like today the Libs can gain some ground in Ontario, Manitoba and BC to make it close. There is a lot of meat on the bone for the Libs to chew on with regards to the Cons, but they need to start really sinking their teeth into it. Pretend like the election is QP and really have at her.

Maybe as you do your analysis you can figure out where the gains will come. I have figured a few gains in my estimate, but I havent dug that deep into the numbers yet.