Friday, May 23, 2008

Liberals Ahead of Conservatives in New Nanos Poll

I warned the Dippers they'd be in trouble in the next poll. 5% in Quebec. Good for fifth place. In the meantime, the Liberals are +14 from the last poll out west. Still think Harper wants an election right now you Conservative Trolls? Watch that Immigration Bill get stalled now. Better yet, maybe Stevie will prorogue again.

Here's Nik on the Numbers:

Methodology
Polling between May 7th and May 11th, 2008. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,004 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). A survey of 1,004 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The subset of 847 committed voters is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.



Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Choice)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the previous Nanos Research Survey completed in April, 2008.

Committed Voters - Canada (N=847, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 34% (-2)
Conservative Party 33% (-3)
NDP 15% (+1)
BQ 11% (+3)
Green Party 8% (+2)
(*Note: Undecided 16%)

Committed Voters - Ontario (N=266, MoE ± 6.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 43% (-7)
Conservative Party 33% (+1)
NDP 17% (+4)
Green Party 7% (+1)
(*Note: Undecided 16%)

Committed Voters - Quebec (N=223, MoE ± 6.6%, 19 times out of 20)
BQ 40% (+5)
Conservative Party 23% (NC)
Liberal Party 22% (-1)
NDP 5% (-8)
Green Party 9% (+3)
(*Note: Undecided 11%)

Committed Voters - West (N=279, MoE ± 5.9%, 19 times out of 20)
Conservative Party 42% (-9)
Liberal Party 33% (+5)
NDP 18% (+2)
Green Party 8% (+2)
(*Note: Undecided 18%)

Committed Voters - Atlantic (N=80, MoE ± 11.1%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal Party 42% (-9)
Conservative Party 26% (-5)
NDP 22% (+8)
Green Party 10% (+7)
(*Note: Undecided 18%)

10 comments:

Francesco said...

Funny that we are ahead and imagine where we would be if we could get our message across more effectively and with one voice...

James Curran said...

Imagine.

jaybird said...

Oh James: you just had to slag us dippers ;0
but when I looked at the overall and regional breakdowns - NDP is up in all cases but QC and we all know that english Canada based pollsters aren't very good at getting the QC numbers. I'll take this poll - thanks very much

James Curran said...

Well every worm gets its turn. Dippers were winning 10 seats in pq after some ridiculous pool 2 weeks ago.

jaybird said...

Again James - I would suggest that we should wait to see what a QC pollster says. I would also like to see riding breakdowns. I don't think there is any dipper that thinks we will be electing MPs outside of Montreal area so even province breakdown may not drill down sufficiently to see where the real potential pick-ups are. Finally, given the difficulty the NDP has with getting coverage outside of campaigns, I think that those potential QC numbers might get even better during and elxn campaign. Just some thoughts...

Wheatsheaf said...

"Still think Harper wants an election right now you Conservative Trolls?"

"imagine where we would be if we could get our message across more effectively and with one voice..."

To go to an election, won't you need a message? If an election were held today, why would people vote Liberal? Can you convince Canadians with a message like "vote Liberal and we may or may not put out a policy on carbon taxes that may or may not go against what we have said before"?

James Curran said...

Yes

Wheatsheaf said...

laff

HappyCamper said...

"Still think Harper wants an election right now you Conservative Trolls?"

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"Conservative trolls"?

Ah yes, how quickliy we forget that LPC supporters are neither shills, sheep, partisan hacks, trolls, trained seals, lemmings, sock puppets or any other appropriate terminology which may apply here.

Rather they are a group of enlightened individuals who give off a glowing aura of wisdom and knowledge and compassion, always showing the highest respect for those whose opinions may differ, and who's every thought, word, and action is heralded by a parting of the heavens and the appearance overhead of trumpeting angels.

James Curran said...

Rather they are a group of enlightened individuals who give off a glowing aura of wisdom and knowledge and compassion, always showing the highest respect for those whose opinions may differ, and who's every thought, word, and action is heralded by a parting of the heavens and the appearance overhead of trumpeting angels.

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Finally. Some truth.