Saturday, January 19, 2008

Why John Edwards is Still Running


Many of you have asked why my guy Edwards is still even in this race. "He's not even close!" is usually the phrase utilized. To those doubters I reply simply, you don't know much about how the American system works.

On the surface it would appear that Clinton has a clear and dominating lead with victories in New Hampshire and Michican. Convincingly by vote counts in both states. Obama, similarly had a big caucus win (popularity contest) in Iowa.


Looks like the two frontrunners leave Edwards in the dust right? Wrong!!! Here's why. After Obama and Clinton outspending Edwards 6 and 7 times to one, the lead they have is minimal.

How minimal?

Clinton has managed to grab just 25 delegates to date. $1.25 million per delegate in spending. Obama? Just 24 delegates. $1.1 million per delegate.

And my boy Johnny??? 18 delegates. Just 7 delegates out of first place. Throw Joe Trippi's master planning behind the scenes and you have a very very winnable campaign. One hiccup a la Howard Dean and one of the top two lose to Edwards.

As an aside, Romney will win Nevada today (with McCain a disant third), Huckabee will win South Carolina and McCain will limp into Florida where Giuliani begins his march to the Rebublican nomination. Edwards is the only candidate for the Dems that can beat Giuliani.

3 comments:

Jason Bo Green said...

I'm surprised anyone is surprised Edwards is still in... I think he's faring well at this point. But I'll admit, I'll be surprised if Giuliani can pull ahead... maybe you're right, though. However, I think he's more beatable by the Democrats than you suggest.

James Curran said...

Well, I'm certain McCain's win in South Carolina will make Florida more than interesting.

Most people don't know that FLA is a winner takes all senario. Rudy wins and gets 57 delegates. Everyone else gets zero. This is why he's banked it all there.

Barack may have just had his Dean moment with this silly Reagan statement.

Third Rail said...

Check out this article, it outlines a strategy on how the Edwards campaign could defeat Hillary Clinton. Check it out at http://thirdrailradio.blogspot.com/