There were a truckload of pundits and strategists scratching their heads over the postition Giuliani's campaign team took on ignoring the first four Republican caucuses and primaries.
Well, heading into Florida after South Carolina and a split of the last three caucuses between McCain, Huckabee and Romney, Giuliani's ploy appears to have paid off. Without spending two Red Cents (relatively speaking), Giuliani will ride a wave of victory in Florida straight into Super Tuesday and become the hands on candidate of choice for the Republican Party.
How does that bode for the Democrats? Most polls suggest that Giuliani can beat Clinton and Obama. Even with the outpour of support nationwide for a Democratic President. Edwards, however, fairs well in polls conducted about him vs. Giuliani. For that matter, he matches up well against any Republican candidate.
The moral of the story?
Giuliani vs. Edwards = an Edwards win. Giuliani vs. Clinton/Obama = a Giuliani win.
6 comments:
James
Where do you get the ride a wave to victory in Florida angle? Guiliani's lead in Florida has evaporated, and it will erode further after South Carolina. You say he hasn't spent a nickle, and yet fundraising has completely dried up, so much so his staff is now working without pay.
Guiliani's strategy is the most incredibly flawed I've ever seen. The reason, Guiliani never controlled his own destiny, his fate is dependent on external developments. Had McCain won in Michigan, which was entirely in the realm, then Rudy would have been dead, never even a factor. It is never wise in politics to leave you fate in the hands of others. Guiliani relies on luck, a sequence of events that aren't predictable, outside of his control. How anyone can spin that as a master plan is frankly beyond me. If Guiliani becomes a factor, it will have nothing to do with him- hardly a winning formula.
Giuliani. Idiot Savant?
Remember the title of this post includes the words Perfect Storm. And, as you just described, it is the perfect storm.
Cumulative polling shows only McCain ahead of Rudy in FLA - and that by a mere 2 points. And, the real fact of the matter is that McCain is even more broke than America's Mayor. By the time McCain gets to Fla. the tank wil be empty.
All the Republicans are broke. Of course Romney will still hang around because he'll dump another $20 mill of his own money in.
The big delegate states are coming up and FLA is very big. Rudy will win and suddenly Americans will remember all that is good about him.
See. The Perfect Storm.
First, pollster.com shows RG ahead of everyone. But he is heading down pretty sharply (http://www.pollster.com/08-FL-Rep-Pres-Primary.php).
Second, it is incorrect to state that he has spent no money. RG spent a mint in NH but pulled out after it got him nowhere.
Now, his strategy may payoff just fine, but he better not hope for a McCain win in SC, because then the field thins back out to McCain and Romney.
As for Edwards vs Guiliani, can you link to a poll? I can't recall any which suggest this. I think you're putting hope ahead of facts.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_giuliani_vs_edwards-229.html#charts
Not to mention Giuliani is waaaay ahead in Cal, NJ and NY. All of which are the heart of the large delegate counts.
peter
Pollster's chart lags, the latest polls show no such thing (which is all that matters). Rudi in Florida, evidence of a failed strategy
James
Latest polls show McCain leading in California, tied with Rudi in NJ, NY is actually competitive.
If a candidate wins they receive money, McCain is anything but broke, should he win SC. A win in SC will produce a bounce, the free advertising pure gold.
Your title is accurate, I'm just arguing that any strategy where you don't control your own fate is sheer madness.
Here's the latest delegate prediction. Giuliani is far ahead of the field. Delegates are all that matter.Ask The 10 Liberal Leadership candidates that didn't win.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/state-polls.html
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